Informe del PIB del Reino Unido para mostrar qué tan rápido creció la economía en el primer trimestre de 2025 – Business Live | Negocio

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

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Britain’s economy is under the microscope today, as we eagerly await the first estimate for UK GDP for the first quarter of the year.

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Economists are expecting to learn that growth picked up in the January-March quarter, after a weak end to 2024.

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GDP is forecast to have risen by a relatively pacy – by recent standards – 0.6% in Q1 2025. That would be rather quicker than the sluggish 0.1% recorded in October-December 2024.

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A pick-up in growth would be warmly welcomed by chancellor Rachel Reeves, as it might indicate that the government’s push for higher growth was finally getting moving.

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However, last week the Bank of England cautioned that “erratic factors”, such as disruptions to manufacturing output at the end of last year, would inflate headline GDP growth in this quarter.

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Growth data for March alone will also be released at 7am – it’s expected to show that GDP stagnated in the month, after a strong February (data last month showed 0.5% growth).

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GDP data always gives a ‘rear view mirror’ of the economy, but today’s data feels particularly historic – as it covers the period just before “Liberation Day”, when Donald Trump launched his trade war at the start of April (before a flurry of backtracking on tariffs).

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Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar, sets the scene:

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“UK GDP is expected to be flat in March, meaning a year over year rise of 1%, not blow-out, but growth nonetheless.

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Investors will be able to place a little more faith in the trajectory of growth in the UK now that a trade deal has been agreed with the US and the risk of exorbitant tariffs has been removed. But inflation, at 2.6%, is still outpacing growth by some measure, and some areas of the economy like manufacturing and industrial production are expected to have gone backwards over the last 12 months.

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The agenda

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  7am BST: UK GDP report for Q1 2025

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  7am BST: UK trade balance report for March

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  9.30am BST: UK labour productivity report for Q4 2024

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  10am BST: Eurozone employment and GDP reports for Q1 2025

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  1.30pm BST: US weekly jobless claims report

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  1.30pm BST: US retail sales report for April

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  1.30pm BST: US producer prices index (PPI) for April

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  1.40pm Jerome Powell speech (Framework Review at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Washington DC)

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  3pm BST: Swati Dhingra: Speech at the New Economics Foundation conference ‘EU macroeconomic policy in an age of shocks’, Brussels

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